نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل علمی پژوهشی
1 گروه مهندسی عمران- مدیریت منابع آب، واحد شوشتر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شوشتر، ایران.
2 نویسنده مسئول، گروه مهندسی عمران- مدیریت منابع آب، واحد شوشتر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شوشتر، ایران.
3 گروه مهندسی عمران-مدیریت منابع آب، واحد شوشتر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شوشتر، ایران.
4 گروه مهندسی منابع آب، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران.
5 گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Background and objectives :When it comes to climate change, the first emphasis should be detecting these changes in high mountainous regions, since they will have a direct impact on water supplies in the major stems. In the Behesht Abad and Koohrang zones of Iran's central Zagros mountains, one of the country's highest mountain ranges, the influence of climate change on snow-rain phase separation in the future is investigated. Because of the Karun River's varied exploitation, understanding how it will evolve in the future and under the effect of climate change is critical. The aim of the research is to determine the consequences of climate change on precipitation in the region, particularly in terms of future changes in snow and rain phases.
Materials and methods: For this, the research region's precipitation, temperature, and precipitation type data from 1985 to 2018 were used. For the three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, the National Center for Environmental Protection's (NCEP) atmospheric reanalysis data and the CanESM2 model were used to forecast future climate change. Furthermore, the downscaling was done using the SDSM5.3 model. To find data patterns, the classic and modified Mann-Kendall tests were performed. Fixed temperature approaches, the UBC watershed model, the USCE model, and Kienzel's suggested method were utilized to separate the precipitation phase.
Results: To separate the precipitation phase throughout the fundamental period, observational reports were examined, and the approaches Kienzle and USCE gave satisfactory results. Climate change will also produce major changes in the precipitation temperature distribution in the examined mountain region in the future, according to the findings of this study. Also, a significant portion of the influence of climate change on the snow and rain phases. The modifications are done in such a way that rainfall will rise at higher temperatures and decrease at lower temperatures in the prediction period (2026-2060) compared to the observation period (1985-2018). The greatest total rainfall recorded at Shahrekord station during the observation period was 5.7 ° C, which has fallen to 0 ° C in the projected period. The temperature range of precipitation at this station was -10 to +18 degrees Celsius during the observation period, and will climb to an average of -10 to +24 degrees Celsius for all three scenarios over the forecast period. The range of precipitation in the future and measurements at Koohrang station is essentially the same, but climate change has produced a rapid shift in the amount of precipitation in this temperature range. Over example, during the 34-year observation period, the greatest rainfall that occurred at a temperature of 1.6 ° C was a total of 5700 mm, which was reduced to -1.6 ° C and a value of 3700 mm owing to climate change for the next 34 years.
The highest limit of the precipitation range at Boroojen station has increased from +18 ° C in the historical era to +24 °C in the anticipated period as a result of the modifications.
Conclusion: The results of the trend test on the predicted data demonstrate that it is present in the monthly rainfall in the study stations in a substantial way. The temperature distribution of precipitation varies as a result of these changes, which are caused by the impacts of climate change on the study region.