پایش توزیع مکانی و زمانی شدت خشکسالی‌ با استفاده از isoSPI و isoSDI در غرب دریاچه ارومیه

Background and objectives: Drought is a normal and continuous feature of climate. Although, Most of people consider as a rare and random event, But this phenomenon are main features and iterative in the different climate. From the perspective of meteorologists, there is no difference between Regions and temporal distribution rainfall in one or several seasons, only the amount of precipitation during the water year is especially important. Droughts often started from meteorological drought and hydrological drought, and goes to socio-economic drought. One of the problems that humanity is facing, especially in recent years, is the water crisis and drought. Almost every five years, a period of two or three-year drought in the country have been seen. This droughts reduced the groundwater and surface water resources and leading to reduce the amount usable water. This shows important of water resources management, the aim of this study is drought monitoring in the meteorological and hydrological aspect using the SPI and SDI indices in the West of Lake Urmia.

Materials and methods: In this study, inspections and completing of the statistical gaps considered, and the number ten meteorological stations and five hydrometric stations with a length of 32 years selected. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) used to check the goodness of fit for the precipitation and stream flow data using means of an adjusted normal distribution. After determine the correlation, Determined compliance classes between Standardized Drought Index and Stream-flow Drought Index with giving codes between one to eight climatic different classes introduced and calculate the sum of The Square for absolute value the difference between classes. The spatial distribution of drought severity obtained from the SDI and SPI indices in October–December (3-month), Oct–March (6-month) and 12-month (Year) of the 1999-2000 was shown. The Spearman correlation test was further applied to explore the relationships between meteorological droughts and hydrological droughts based on the SPI and SDI series respectively. Different combinations of periods including no-lag, 1 month-lag, 2 month-lag, and 3 month-lag between the meteorological and hydrological droughts considered.
Results: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test results, showed that all of the series follow a normal distribution. The results of the goodness-of-fit K-S test showed that the log-normal distribution was the best fit probability distribution for the stream flow series and normal distribution for the period October-December and in other period's gamma distribution, was the best fit probability distribution for the precipitation series. The results of Spearman correlation and non-compliance between indices SPI and SDI For the entire study area shows, the highest correlation is related to the period of October-June. The Spearman correlation analysis was applied to explore the relationships between meteorological and hydrological droughts which indicated a strong correlation between Apr–Jun -SPI series and the May–Jul -SDI series with a value of 0.67.

Conclusion: This study aimed at Monitoring droughts meteorological and hydrological using the SPI and SDI indices by considering the different delays in the West of Lake Urmia the K–S test was applied to all time series to test which distribution fitted the time series best. The exponential, gamma, uniform, log-normal and normal distributions were tested, and ultimately, the latter was used log-normal and gamma distributions, respectively to calculate the SDI and SPI. Considering to fluctuations intense in rainfall in recent years, its impact is evident in the volume flow of passing, so the effective development and implementation of programs and utilization of water resources and of the effects of drought when the flow volume fluctuations can greatly Reduction transmission losses incurred.