تحلیل تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر روند دماهای حدی در ایستگاه‌های ساحلی استان مازندران بر مبنای مدل های CMIP6

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری هواشناسی کشاورزی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

2 نویسنده مسئول، استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری بیولوژی، گروه میکروبیولوژی، دانشگاه ایالتی داکوتای جنوبی، داکوتای جنوبی، آمریکا.

چکیده

چکیده
سابقه و هدف: گرمایش جهانی موجب تغییر در فراسنج‌های دما و به تبع آن افزایش وقوع رویدادهای فرین از جمله سیل و خشکسالی می-شود که در اغلب موارد، از آب و هوای شدید حاصل می‌شوند؛ لذا مطالعه و بررسی تغییرات آینده مقادیر حدی پارامترهای هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی از جمله دما، بیشتر از مقدار میانگین یا میانه، حائز اهمیت می‌باشد. بنابراین، هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر روند تغییرات فصلی دماهای حدی (مقادیر بسیار بالا و بسیار پایین) در ایستگاه‌های ساحلی استان مازندران بر مبنای مدل‌های CMIP6 و روش رگرسیون چندک می‌باشد.

مواد و روش‌ها: در این پژوهش، به منظور بررسی روند مقادیر حدی دما در استان مازندران برای دوره‌ی آینده از برونداد سری ششم مدل-های تغییر اقلیم (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, CMIP6) استفاده گردید. برای این منظور از دو دسته داده شامل کمینه و بیشینه دمای 4 ایستگاه سینوپتیک اصلی استان شامل بابلسر، قراخیل، رامسر و نوشهر و نیز برونداد مدل NorESM2-MM از مدل‌های CMIP6 در دو دوره‌ی آینده‌ی نزدیک (2055-2026) و آینده‌ی دور (2100-2071) و برای سه سناریو خوش‌بینانه (SSP126)، حد متوسط (SSP245) و بدبینانه (SSP585) استفاده گردید. به منظور مقیاس‌کاهی داده‌های مدل در ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی مورد مطالعه، از روش‌های مختلف موجود در نرم افزار مقیاس‌کاهی CMhyd استفاده گردید و خروجی داده‌های دما برای روشی که از دقت بالاتری برخوردار بود، برای بررسی روند انتخاب گردید. در گام بعد، برای بررسی روند فصلی مقادیر حدی دما از روش رگرسیون چندک استفاده گردید و نتایج مورد تحلیل و بررسی قرار گرفت.

یافته‌ها: نتایج مقیاس‌‌کاهی با استفاده از روش‌های مختلف نشان داده است که روش Variance Scaling بهترین عملکرد را در بین روش-های موجود در CMhyd دارد. به طورکلی نتایج بیانگر بی‌هنجاری مثبت دما (افزایش دمای سالانه نسبت به دوره‌ی پایه در سناریوهای SSP126=1.3، SSP245=2.56 و SSP585=3.2 درجه سلسیوس( در استان مازندران در تمام ماه‌های سال تا پایان قرن بیست ‌و یکم است. شدت بی‌هنجاری در ماه‌های گرم بیشتر از ماه‌های سرد است .تحت سناریو خوش‌بینانه، مقادیر حدی متغیرهای دما در فصل‌های بهار و پاییز در آینده‌ی دور، حداکثر تا 1 درجه در هر دهه کاهش خواهد یافت. با این‌حال، میانگین‌ کمینه دما در همه سناریوها (از جمله سناریو خوش‌بینانه) افزایشی است و کاهش صرفاً برای مقادیر حدی پیش‌نگری شده است. اما تحت سناریوهای حد متوسط و بدبینانه، افزایش مقادیر حدی دما در تمامی فصل‌ها وجود خواهد داشت که شدت آن برای سناریو بدبینانه و در فصل بهار (15/0 درجه سانتیگراد در سال) بیشتر خواهد بود.

نتیجه گیری: با توجه به نتایج می‌توان بیان کرد افزایش قابل ملاحظه دماهای حدی در شبانه روز خصوصا در ماه‌های گرم سال، باعث افزایش تبخیر و تعرق خواهد شد و در کنار کاهش بارندگی در ماه‌های گرم، باعث کاهش منابع آب در بخش‌های مختلف استان مازندران و فشار به آب‌های زیرزمینی می‌شود. بنابراین، تدوین و اجرای برنامه‌های مدیریتی مناسب در جهت نیاز هر منطقه، به منظور سازگاری با دماهای حدی و عواقب سوء آن، اهمیت بسیار دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the effect of climate change on the trend of extreme temperatures along the coast of Mazandaran province based on CMIP6 models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sedigheh Bararkhanpour 1
  • Mehdi Nadi 2
  • Sara Mazloom Babanari 1
  • Abbas Jedariforoughi 3
1 Ph.D. Student of Agrometeorology, Dept. of Water Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
2 Corresponding Author, Assistant Prof., Dept. of Water Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
3 Ph.D. Student of Biology, Dept. of Microbiology, South Dakota State University, South Dakota, USA.
چکیده [English]

Abstract
Background and objectives: Global warming cause changes in temperature variables and consequently increase in the occurrence of extreme events like as floods and droughts, result from extreme weather in most cases; Therefore, it is important to study and investigate the future changes of extreme values of meteorological and hydrological parameters, including temperature, more than the average or median value. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of climate change on the trend of seasonal changes in extreme temperatures (very high and very low values) in coastal stations of Mazandaran province based on CMIP6 models and quantile regression method.
Materials and methods: In this research, in order to investigate the trend of extreme values of temperature in Mazandaran province for the future periods, the output of the sixth generation of climate change models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, CMIP6) was used. For this purpose, minimum and maximum temperature of 4 main synoptic stations of the province, including Babolsar, Qarakhil, Ramsar and Nowshahr, and also the output of the NorESM2-MM climate model from the CMIP6 in near future (2026-2055) and far future (2071-2100) at three optimistic (SSP126), moderate (SSP245) and pessimistic (SSP585) scenarios was used. In order to downscaling climate model data at the studied meteorological stations, various methods in the CMhyd downscaling software were used, and the Temperature data output for the method that had higher accuracy, was selected to analysis of trend. In the next step, the quantile regression method was used to investigate the seasonal trend of temperature extreme values and the results were analyzed.
Results: The results of downscaling using different methods have shown that the Variance Scaling method has the best performance among the available methods in CMhyd. In general, the results show a positive temperature anomaly (annual temperature increase compared to the base period in SSP126=1.3, SSP245=2.56, SSP585=3.2 oC) in Mazandaran province in all months of the year until the end of the 21st century. The intensity of the anomalies is higher in the warm months than in the cold ones. Under the optimistic scenario, the extreme values of the temperature variables in the spring and autumn seasons will decrease by a maximum of 1 degree per decade in the distant future. However, the average minimum temperature is increasing in all scenarios (including the optimistic scenario) and the decrease is only predicted for extreme values. But under the average and pessimistic scenarios, there will be an increase in the temperature extreme values in all seasons, so that its intensity will be greater for the pessimistic scenario and in the spring season (0.15 oC per year).
Conclusion: According to the results, it concluded that the significant increase in extreme temperature during the day and night, especially in the warm months of the year, will increase evapotranspiration, and along with the decrease in rainfall in the hot months, it will cause a decrease in water resources in different parts of Mazandaran province and pressure on the groundwater. Therefore, it is very important to formulate and implement appropriate management programs according to the needs of each region, in order to adapt to extreme temperatures and their adverse consequences.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Temperature
  • CMIP6 models
  • SSP scenarios
  • Trend
  • Quantile regression

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مجله پژوهش‌های حفاظت آب و خاک
دوره 30، شماره 4
دی 1402
صفحه 1-27

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