مدلسازی تاثیر کم‌آبیاری بر عملکرد گندم در شرایط تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل علمی پژوهشی

نویسنده

نویسنده مسئول، استادیار هواشناسی کشاورزی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

چکیده

چکیده
سابقه و هدف: گیاهان زراعی برای گذراندن مراحل رشد و نمو، ارتباط تنگاتنگی با شرایط اقلیمی و محیط پیرامونی خود دارند. بنابراین آگاهی و شناخت اثرگذاری فراسنجه‌های جوی بر عمکلرد گیاه و بازده تولید اهمیت بسیار حائز اهمیت و ضرور بنظر می‌رسد.

مواد و روش‌ها: آزمایش در قالب طرح بلوک‌های کامل تصادفی در 3 تکرار با پنج تیمار آزمایشی شامل؛ ]بدون کم‌آبیاری (شاهد) (NII)، کم‌آبیاری در مرحله آبستنی (IIB)، گلدهی (IIF)، شیری شدن دانه (IIM)، و خمیری شدن دانه (IID)[، در شهرستان ورامین انجام شد. شبیه-سازی اقلیم آینده، با بهره‌گیری از مدل گردش عمومی HadGEM تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 در سه دوره 2025، 2055 و 2085، توسط مدل AgMIP با استفاده از داده‌های اقلیمی بلند مدت مربوط به دوره پایه (1980-2009) صورت گرفت. برای شبیه‌سازی رشد و نمو گندم از مدل SSM-Wheat استفاده شد.

یافته‌ها: بر پایه یافته‌ها، تغییرات دمای بیشینه و کمینه نسبت به دوره پایه در دورهای 2025، 2055 و 2085 نشان داد که دمای بیشینه و کمینه تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 در مقایسه با RCP4.5 شدیدتر بود. به‌طوریکه تحت سناریوی RCP8.5، دمای بیشینه به‌ترتیب با 1/2، 3/4، 9/6 و دمای کمینه به‌ترتیب با 5/1، 2/3 و 6/5 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش همراه بود. مقدار بارش در در دوره‌های 2025، 2055 تحت سناریو RCP8.5، به‌ترتیب 9/4 و 9/5 درصد افزایش یافت. در حالیکه میزان بارش در دوره 2085 تحت سناریو RCP8.5 نشان از کاهش 6/12 درصدی داشت. نتایج نشان داد که هم در شرایط بدون کم‌آبیاری و هم در شرایط کم‌آبیاری در مرحله گلدهی در دوره‌های 2025، 2055 و 2085 تحت هر دو سناریوی، وضعیت کسر آب قابل دسترس گیاه با گذر از مراحل اولیه رشد و نمو، گندم آبی مهرگان با تنش کم‌آبی مواجه شد و نیاز به آبیاری از همین زمان بسیار مشهود بود. همچنین طول دوره رشد و نمو گندم آبی مهرگان در دوره 2085 نسبت به دوره‌های 2055 و 2025 کوتاهتر شد و این کاهش دوره نسبت به فصل رشد و نمو بسیار شدیدتر بود. ارزیابی عملکرد دانه در دوره‌ 2085 تحت سناریو RCP8.5، نشان داد که کم‌آبیاری در مرحله گلدهی به میزان قابل توجهی عملکرد دانه را 8/16 درصد کاهش داد.

نتیجه‌گیری: در شرایط تغییر اقلیم دمای بیشینه و کمینه تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 در طی دوره‌های مورد بررسی در مقایسه با دوره پایه افزایش یافت. این میزان افزایش با گذر از دوره 2025 تا 2085 و همچنین در سناریو RCP8.5 در مقایسه با سناریو RCP4.5 شدیدتر بود. همچنین بر پایه یافته‌ها، وضعیت آب قابل دسترس گیاه در شرایط بدون کم‌آبیاری و هم در شرایط کم‌آبیاری در مرحله گلدهی در دوره‌های 2025، 2055 و 2085 تحت هر دو سناریو، نشان از عدم وجود تنش کم‌آبی بود. نتایج ارزیابی میزان عملکرد دانه نشان داد که کاهش عملکرد دانه تحت سناریو RCP 8.5 نسبت به سناریو RCP4.5 آشکارتر و با شدت بیش‌تری همراه بود. و در این میان کم‌آبیاری در مراحل آبستنی و بویژه گلدهی میزان عملکرد دانه را با کاهش چشمگیری مواجه ساخت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling the impact of water deficit on wheat yield under climate change conditions

نویسنده [English]

  • saeid shiukhy soqanloo
Corresponding Author, Assistant Prof. of Agrometeorology, Dept. of Water Engineering, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Abstract
Background and objectives: The plant have a close relationship with the climatic conditions and their surrounding environment to go through the stages of growth and development. Therefore, the knowledge and understanding of the effect of atmospheric parameters on plant yield and production efficiency is very important.
Materials and method: The experiment was conducted in the form of a randomized complete block design in three replications with five experimental treatments including: no water deficit (control) (NWD), water deficit at the booting stage (WDB), flowering (WDF), milking (WDM), and doughing (WDD), in Varamin, Iran. Simulating the future climate, using the HadGEM general circulation model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in the three periods of 2025, 2055 and 2085, by the AgMIP model using long-term climate data related to the base period (1980-2009) was done. SSM-Wheat model was used to simulate wheat growth.
Result: Based on the findings, the changes of maximum and minimum temperature compared to the baseline in the periods of 2025, 2055 and 2085 showed that the maximum and minimum temperature under RCP8.5 scenario increased more than RCP4.5. So that under the RCP8.5 scenarios, the maximum temperature increased by 2.1, 4.3, and 6.9 (ºC), respectively. and the minimum temperature increased by 1.5, 3.2, and 5.6 (ºC) respectively. The amount of precipitation in the periods of 2025 and 2055 under the RCP8.5 scenario increased by 4.9 and 5.9%, respectively. While the amount of precipitation in the period of 2085 under RCP8.5 scenario showed a decrease of 12.6%. The results showed that both in the no water deficit and the water deficit at the flowering stage in the periods of 2025, 2055 and 2085 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the FASW by passing through The early stages of wheat cv. Mehregan growth were faced with water shortage stress and the need for irrigation was necessary from that time. Also, the length of the growth period of wheat cv. Mehregan in 2085 period was shorter compared to 2055 and 2025 periods, and this period reduction was much more intense than the growth season. The evaluation of grain yield in 2085 under the RCP8.5 scenario showed that the water deficit at the flowering stage significantly reduced grain yield by 16.8%.
Conclusion: In the climate change conditions, the maximum and minimum temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increased during the studied periods compared to the base period. This increase was more intense from 2025 to 2085 and also under the RCP8.5 scenarios. Based on the findings, the FASW in the no water deficit and the water deficit at the flowering stage at the 2025, 2055 and 2085 periods under both scenarios showed the absence of water stress. The results of the evaluation of the grain yield showed that the reduction of grain yield under the RCP8.5 scenarios was more obvious and more severe than the RCP4.5 scenarios. The water deficit both the booting and especially flowering stages caused a significant decrease in grain yield.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: Climatic scenario
  • Flowering
  • Maximum temperature
  • SSM-wheat model
  • Varamin

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مجله پژوهش‌های حفاظت آب و خاک
دوره 30، شماره 1
فروردین 1402
صفحه 71-89

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