Presenting a mathematical modeling and system dynamics for the supply chain of urban water security in Guilan province

Document Type : Complete scientific research article

Authors

1 M.Sc. Graduate, Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Lahijan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lahijan, Iran.

2 Corresponding Author, Assistant Prof., Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Lahijan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lahijan, Iran.

3 Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Lahijan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lahijan, Iran.

Abstract

Background and objectives: Ensuring urban water security refers to a set of measures that are carried out in order to maintain and guarantee the supply of water to cities and communities in a safe approach in terms of health, quality and supply. Urban water security includes issues such as sufficient and sustainable water supply, maintaining water quality, preventing various pollutions, managing water resources, protecting water supply in the face of natural and human threats, and providing water in emergency and critical situations. The ultimate goal is to provide urban water security, improve the quality of life of citizens and maintain public health. Therefore, reducing and increasing fluctuations in urban drinking water availability and ensuring water security for urban communities are important responsibilities that rest on the shoulders of water supply systems. Guilan province is facing issues such as numerous weather fluctuations, which creates unlimited importance for water security.
Materials and methods: In this paper, using optimization methods, a model for urban water supply system in Guilan province is presented using mathematical modeling and system dynamics. For this purpose, a hybrid model using mathematical modeling, meta-heuristic algorithms and system dynamics approach is presented. Using the mathematical model and meta-heuristic algorithm, the decision variables that include the amount of water resources, the amount of purified water in the water treatment system, the amount of waste water in the area and the amount of water shortage in the area along with the values of the objective functions, the first objective of which is to minimize the cost of water supply which includes the cost of energy, the amount of energy consumption, the cost of constructing a purification system, the cost of managing water resources, the cost of managing the purification system, the cost of transferring water resources and waste water. Also, the second goal of the problem is to minimize water shortage for the whole system. Then, these values are entered into the system dynamics model as input values and thus the amount of shortage in future periods is predicted.
Results: After checking the accuracy and validity of the model presented in the urban water supply system from different sources, the obtained results indicate that increasing the treatment capacity as well as the presence of water resources in the province can affect the cost of treatment and reducing the shortage and waste water. The results of predicting the amount of shortage in future periods showed a linear trend up to more than 520 thousand units. In addition, the sensitivity analysis also showed the inverse effect of the parameters of the capacity and amount of incoming water and the direct effect of the parameters of transmission cost, energy consumption, energy supply cost, treatment cost, source cost, construction cost and demand. Among the parameters with direct effect, energy consumption cost, construction cost and treatment cost have the most effect on supply cost. Also, the parameters of treatment cost and demand have the greatest effect on the shortage and waste water in the system.
Conclusion: The results of this research provide useful information regarding the prediction of drinking water shortage in the hands of the managers of water and sewerage company of Guilan province to provide urban drinking water as well as other consumers including domestic, industrial and agricultural in Rasht metropolis.

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References

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Journal of Water and Soil Conservation
Volume 31, Issue 2
July 2024
Pages 1-31

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