Analysis and determining the threshold of extreme precipitation of Western Iran through using general extreme value distribution

Document Type : Complete scientific research article

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Abstract

Background and Objectives: The limits of precipitation in any area, is said to be abnormal rainfall that is on the trail and away from the focus point of the distribution of rainfall. The high limits and high sequence distribution of precipitation have been of interest recently. In this regard, according to the geographical features of the area, many and varied threshold for this feature is introduced and applied. One of the most widely used indexes of daily precipitation is based on generalized distribution of limit values. The aim of this study was to determine the threshold of extreme rainfall in the western regions of Iran (Hamedan, Lorestan, Kordestan, Kermanshah and Ilam) and spatial analysis thresholds.
Data and Methods: For this purpose, data from rainfall of 69 synoptic stations and climatology in a 50-year period (1961 to 2010) with the distribution of general extreme value and non-parametric method (index percentile, 95th and 99th) of threshold rainfall were selected for sapacial analysis through two climatological criteria. In this study, three distribution test limit values generalized POT (test MRL, TC, DI) nonparametric test, procedure CPOT that the average threshold of these three non-parametric methods, and also the parametric method was applied (Indexes of 95th percentile and the 99th percentile have been selected for the threshold Extreme rainfall of the Western Country. And finally, using GIS to analyze the spatial distribution thresholds determined by the methods mentioned in the stations studied were discussed.
Results: The results of the evaluation showed that CPOT is a good way to choose the threshold of extreme precipitation of Western Iran that the 81 percent threshold Extreme rainfall stations studied in the given amounts fall in between both criteria and the lowest amount is estimated by 95th percentile which is generally non-parametric method according to both evaluation criteria that the first criterion related to the data series above the threshold, and the other is selected in the threshold value, did not show satisfactory results. Threshold Extreme rainfall less than half the number of stations studied fell at the borders of both criteria.
Conclusion: The results of the analysis of parametric methods (some generalized distribution) and nonparametric on 69 stations showed that Extreme rainfall threshold of most of the stations was between 22 to 26 mm and CPOT method is a proven and efficient method for determining the threshold of extreme precipitation in Western country and also MRL is a satisfactory method for selecting threshold extreme precipitation.

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References

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