The Prediction of Heavy Precipitation Regarding the Impacts of 21th Century Climate Changes in  selected stations  Golestan Province

Yazarloo, Behnaz; Zakerinia, Mehdi; Abdolhosseini, Mohammad

The Prediction of Heavy Precipitation Regarding the Impacts of 21th Century Climate Changes in selected stations Golestan Province

Document Type : Complete scientific research article

Authors

¹ A graduate of the University of Natural Resources Gorgan

² Head of Department & Assistant professor in water engineering group of Gorgan university of agricultural sciences and natural resources

³ Assistant professor in water engineering group of Gorgan university of agricultural sciences and natural resources

Abstract

Excessive uses of fossil fuels, global population growth and increasing industrial expansion after industrial revolution have caused gradual evident changes in earth’s climate. The climate change resulted in change in hydrology regimen and increase of heavy rain falls in a way that a rise of extreme events is predicted for upcoming decades. The climate change in recent years has become an important issue due to the extreme events impacts on economy, society and financial losses which have turned it to a matter of considerable concern for climate scientists and the entire international community. The objective of this research is to investigate the effect of climate change on precipitation amount in Golestan province’s specific stations during three upcoming periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under two emission scenarios A1 and B2 and to analyze the impact of such changes on precipitation extreme events in this province. It is noteworthy to mention that in this research the precipitation data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) database besides proportional spatial and temporal downscaling method for variation agent were used. The results predicted the most increase in average annual precipitation in Bandar Torkaman station by 17.6% and the most decrease in Pishkamar station by 13.1% under A1 scenario during far period. Moreover the number of precipitation extreme events has risen as we get closer to the end of 21th century in which the more extreme precipitation under A1 and B2 scenarios is predicted to happen in wet and semi-dry stations respectively.

Keywords