بررسی عدم قطعیت شبیه‌سازی بارش آینده (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه همدیدی بجنورد و مشهد)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه گنبد

2 کارشناسی ابخیزداری

3 هیات علمی دانشگاه گنبد کاووس

4 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه گنبد کاووس، دانشجوی دکتری آمار دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود

چکیده

علیرغم پیشرفت علم و در نتیجه دقیق‌تر شدن مدل‌های اقلیمی در پروژه‌های تغییر اقلیم، منابع مختلفی از عدم قطعیت وجود دارد که ناشی از فعالیت‌های انسانی و واکنش متقابل سیستم اقلیمی در مقیاس‌های بزرگ مکانی و زمانی است. لذا، به‌منظور کاربرد موفقیت‌آمیز شبیه‌سازی‌ پارامترهای هواشناسی در تحقیقات کاربردی منابع آب، تحلیل عدم قطعیت ضروری است. هدف این تحقیق، بررسی عدم قطعیت شبیه‌سازی‌ سری‌زمانی بارش در افق آتی اول (2040-2011) و افق آتی دوم (2070-2040) با دو روش باکس پلات و بوت استرپ است. شبیه‌سازی‌های سری‌ زمانی بارش خروجی مدل‌‌ HadCM3 با سناریوهای A1B، A2، B2، B1، مدل‌های NCPCM، CNCM3 با سناریوی A1B، مدل GFCM2 با سناریو‌های A1B و A2 و مدل CGCM3با سناریوهای A1B و A2 با دو مدل ریز مقایس گردانی آماری و در مجموع 10 سناریوی مختلف برای بررسی عدم قطعیت شبیه‌سازی‌ها در دو افق آینده اول و دوم استفاده شد. در این تحقیق دو روش باکس- ویسکر و روش غیرپارامتری فاصله اطمینان بوت استرپ جهت بررسی و کاهش عدم قطعیت شبیه‌سازی‌ها بکار برده شد. طبق نتایج نمودار باکس- ویسکر در ایستگاه همدیدی بجنورد، شبیه‌سازی‌های ماهانه در بعضی سناریوها با دو مدل CGCM3 و HadCM3 در افق اول و مدل HadCM3 در افق دوم به عنوان داده پرت برای مرحله بعدی آنالیز در نظر گرفته نشد. در ایستگاه همدیدی مشهد نیز اختلاف معنی‌داری در شبیه‌سازی بعضی مدل‌های GCM و سناریوهای انتشار مشاهده شد که مربوط به مدل CGCM3 در دو ماه ژانویه و مارس و مدل GFCM3 در ماه‌های مربوط به فصل تابستان بود. بعد از شناسایی و حذف سناریوهای پرت با روش باکس-ویسکر، نتایج بیانگر انتظار افزایش بارش در هر دو ایستگاه و در هر دو افق آینده است. در مرحله بعد با روش بوت استرپ عدم قطعیت خروجی برای مجموعه شبیه‌سازی‌ها محاسبه شد. نتایج در ایستگاه همدیدی بجنورد بیانگر ضخامت زیاد باند عدم قطعیت در اکثر ماه‌ها به‌جز در ماه‌‌های آگوست و اکتبر است. همچنین مقایسه مقادیر میانگین شبیه‌سازی بارش ماهانه آینده با دوره پایه بیانگر افزایش بارش در شش ماهه دوم میلادی در دو افق آتی نسبت به دوره پایه است. در بیشتر مطالعات قبلی در ایران طیف گسترده‌ای از عدم قطعیت‌ها در بحث پیش‌بینی تغییر اقلیم را در نظر نگرفتند و درنتیجه یافته‌های آنها دقیق‌تر از آنچه که واقعا هستند به نظر می‌رسد. بنابراین نتایج آنها کمتر مورد قبول محققان است و برای سیاستگزاران منابع آب گمراه کننده است. به نظر محققین این مقاله روش ارایه شده در اینجا تا حدودی نقص اساسی در بیشتر مطالعات تغییر اقلیم در کشور را پوشش می‌دهد و عدم در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت در مطالعات تغییر اقلیم می‌تواند به کم بها دادن طیف وسیعی از اثرات تغییر اقلیم منجر شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Uncertainty analysis of rainfall projections (case study: Bojnourd and Mashhad synoptic gauge station)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Azam Ghandi 2
  • Seyed Morteza Seyedian 3
2 Former M.Sc. Student of Watershed Management Dept. Gonbad Kavuse University
3 Assistance Professor ofGonbad Kavuse University
4 Lecturer in Gonbad University
چکیده [English]

Despite recent progress in developing reliable climate models, the different uncertainties inherent in climate change projections. Climate can change due to a number of anthropogenic and natural factors in spatial and temporal large scales. Therefore, a successful application of a climate parameters simulation in applied water research strongly depends on uncertainty analysis of model output. Here we present a detailed and quantitative uncertainty assessment of rainfall for first future epoch (2011-2040) and second future epoch (2040-2070), based on the projections of wide range of rainfall projections resulting from the factorial combination of four emission scenarios, five GCMs and two downscaling methods (LARS-WG و SDSM) in Bojnourd and Mashhad synoptic stations. This enabled us to decompose the uncertainty in the ensemble of projections using Box-whisker plot and Bootstrapping method. The uncertainty in precipitation change in response to the general circulation model (GCM) from HadCM3, NCPCM, CNCM3, GFCM2, CGCM3, SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) and two downscaling method (SDSM and LARS-WG) was investigated in two future epochs. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future precipitation by Box-whisker plots and Bootstrap technique. In the first step, the outliers were excluded by box-and-whisker plots. In the next step the precipitation projected which is reported by ten different scenarios, is then a vector of about 6000 bootstrap replications (500 per model), from which we take the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles to calculate the range containing 95% of projected estimates. The GCM models show wide variation in their results, particularly for Bojnourd precipitation forecasting. According to Box-whisker graph in Bojnourd synoptic station (BSS), the projected precipitations by CGCM3 and HadCM3 in first and second epoch fall under the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. In Mashhad synoptic station (MSS) some scenarios projected precipitation significantly different from other scenarios which were belonging to CGCM3 in January and March and GFCM3 in summer months. On the basis of these results, it is clear that both stations will experience an increase in precipitation for epoch1 and epoch2, with the largest increase found for epoch2. In the next step confidence interval estimation by the bootstrap method is investigated for the uncertainty quantification of precipitation projections using the random sampling method. In BSS the confidence interval band is large in all month except in August and October. It is interesting that for MSS, the range in GCM predictions is relatively small for all seasons except in spring. This means that the uncertainty in climate predictions is considerably smaller for these months. All GCM and downscaling outputs are inherently uncertain because no model can ever fully describe physical systems. Most studies in the literature on the climate change projection do not capture the full range of plausible future climate variation, making their findings seem more precise than they actually are, and as a result making them less credible among climate scientists and potentially misleading for policymakers. We feel that the methodological approach presented here addresses a fundamental shortcoming in the past research. We show that failing to account for climate uncertainty lead to a false sense of confidence about the likely future impacts of climate change, when in fact impacts are actually far less certain

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Box-Whisker
  • Bootstrap
  • Climate Change
  • Rainfall
  • Uncertainty

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