بررسی دقت روش پویایی‌سیستم در شبیه‌سازی و بهینه‌سازی منحنی‌فرمان مخزن سد (مطالعه موردی: سد چغاخور)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی بوعلی سینا همدان، ایران

2 گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: افزایش تقاضای آب و منابع آب محدود در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖﺧﺸﻚ و ﻧﻴﻤﻪ‌خشک، مدیریت و برنامه ریزی جهت استفاده بهینه از منابع آب را ضروری و لازم ساخته است. از سوی دیگر منابع آب‌سطحی در ایران سهم عمده‌ای در تأمین نیاز‌آبی بخش‌های مختلف شرب، کشاورزی و صنعت دارد. در همین راستا، مدیران جهت برنامه‌ریزی منابع آب به خصوص مخازن سد‌ها، نیاز به اتخاذ سیاست‌های بهینه دارند. از اﯾﻦ رو ﺗﻼش ﻫﺎی زﯾﺎدی ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎی ﮐﺎﻣﭙﯿﻮﺗﺮی در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﺬﮐﻮر ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﯾﮑﯽ از روش ﻫﺎی ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮای ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻫﺎ، روش ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از روﺷﻬﺎی ﻗﺪرﺗﻤﻨﺪ و ﺑﺼﺮی ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزی اﺳﺖ. مدلهایی که با این روش نوشته می شوند ﺑﺎ ﺑﯿﻨﺶ ﻓﺮآﯾﻨﺪﻫﺎی ﺑﺎزﺧﻮرد، ﮐﺎرﺑﺮان ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ را ﺑﻪ ﻓﻬﻢ ﺑﻬﺘﺮی از رﻓﺘﺎر دﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮑﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻫﺎ در ﻃﻮل زﻣﺎن ﻧﺎﯾﻞ ﻣﯽ ﺳﺎزﻧﺪ. اما Vensim یک ابزار مدل سازی بصری است که این امکان را می دهد تا بتوان مدل های سیستم های پویا را مفهوم سازی، شبیه سازی، تجزیه و تحلیل و بهینه سازی کرد. لذا در این تحقیق به منظور بهینه سازی منحنی فرمان عملکرد سد چغاخور از روشهای پویایی سیستم و الگوریتم بهینه سازی مبتنی بر هوش تجمعی استفاده شد. در نهایت دقت عملکرد این روش ها مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت.
مواد و روش‌ها: منطقه مورد‌مطالعه در نزدیکی شهر بروجن واقع گردیده است. سد چغاخور خاکی بوده و آب آن عمدتاً از طریق نزولات جوى و چشمه‌ها تامین می شود. در این تحقیق نتایج با داده های ماهانه جمع آوری شده در یک دوره 10 ساله (1393-1383) از سد چغاخور مقایسه می شوند. روابط بین جریان ورودی، حجم ذخیره مخزن و میزان رها‌سازی هر دوره تعیین و با استفاده از روش پویایی سیستم در محیط VENSIM و با استفاده از روش فراکاوشی pso در محیط MATLAB تعریف شدند. تابع هدف و محدودیت ها برای هر دو مدل یکسان می باشد.
یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان داد مقدار ضریب تعیین که بیانگر همبستگی بین داده های شبیه سازی شده توسط روش پویایی سیستم و داده های مشاهده ای می باشد در حجم مخزن برابر 995/0 و برای میزان رهاسازی مخزن سد برابر با 991/0 می‌باشد. پس از بهینه سازی، اختلاف بین نیاز پایین دست و مقادیر رهاسازی شده کاهش یافت و باعث کاهش هدر رفت آب شد. میزان این اختلاف برای روش پویایی سیستم برابر با 78/11 میلیون‌متر مکعب و برای روش PSO برابر با 82/18 میلیون متر‌مکعب بود. این در حالی است که در شرایط واقعی این اختلاف برابر با 68/25 میلیون متر‌مکعب بوده است.
نتیجه‌گیری: در مجموع نتایج نشان داد که مدل پویایی سیتم نسبت به الگوریتم PSO از دقت بیشتری در بهینه سازی منحنی فرمان سد برخوردار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determining the accuracy of the dynamic system in simulating and optimizing the rule curves of the dam reservoir (Case Study: Choghakhor dam)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Nozari 1
  • Maryam Vafaee 2
1 water management Department, Agricultural faculty, BuAli Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
2 water management Department, Agricultural faculty, BuAli Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Background and objectives: Increasing water demands and limited water resources in arid and semiarid regions have required management and planning to optimal use of the water resources. On the other hand, the surface water resources providing a major portion of water supply for drinking, agriculture and industrial sectors. For this porpuse, managers need to adopt optimal policies for planning water resources use, especially reservoirs of dams. Therefore, many attempts have been made to develop computer models to perform such simulations. One of the most effective methods to evaluate complex systems is system dynamics. This approach is a feedback-based and object-oriented approach. Any dynamic system is characterized by interdependence, mutual interaction, information feedback, and circular causality. However, Vensim is a visual modeling tool that allows you to conceptualize, simulate, analyze, and optimize models of dynamic systems. Vensim model provides a simple and flexible way of building simulation models from causal loop or stock and flow diagrams. So, in this research, system dynamics and particle swarm optimization algorithm were used to optimize the rule curve of Choghakhor Dam. Finally, the accuracy of the methods was evaluated.
Materials and Methods: The study area is located near Borujen city. the Choghakhor dam is a earth fill dam and its water is mainly supplied through precipitation and springs. In this study, the results are compared with monthly data collected over ten years period (2004-2014) in the Choghakhor Dam. The relations between the inflow, the volume of reservoir storage and the rate of release of each period were determined and they were defined by using system dynamics approach in VENSIM model and using pso algorithm in MATLAB model. the objective function and all of the limitations are the same for both of the models.
Results: The results showed that The coefficient of determination (r2) which is a measure of the degree of correlation between the system dynamics simulation and the observation data was 0.995 for the reservoir volume and 0.991 for the release rate. After optimization the difference between the requirements and the release rates decreased and reduced the waste of water. The difference was 11.78 MCM for system dynamics approach and 18.82 MCM for PSO algorithm. While in observation, The difference was 25.68 MCM.
Conclusion: In general, the results showed that the system dynamics model is more accurate than the pso algorithm in optimisation of the reservoir operation by rule curve adjust in Choghakhor dam.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Optimized
  • Chghakhor dam
  • Rule curves dam
  • Algorithm PSO
  • System dynamics
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