عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]چکیده [English]
Background and objectives: Stability of catchment with stability criteria in different ways and by many researchers has been estimated. Inclouding Water poverty index (Sullivan, 2002), Canadian water sustainability index by Policy Research Initiative, Watershed sustainability indecies (Chavez and Alipaz,2007) (15,4). Integrated water resources management in large scale basins regard to aspects of economic, social and environmental criteria for water resource planning is essential(3). This type of management with DPSIR framework takes executive shape.
Materials and Methods: Therefore, in this study, Integrated Water Resources Management based on calculating of sustainability indices in the economic, social and environmental terms of DPSIR framwork were evaluated. This framework includes Driving Force- Pressures-State-Impact-Response terms. Driving forces in the form of three scenarios such as continue the status quo, optimistic and pessimistic; have been assessed in Mike Basin. The status quo scenario takes into account the current situation for the future of the basin and river discharge time series and demands for domestic, industry and agriculture in the future, such as the status quo. The optimistic scenario creates a positive climate change in the region, increasing water availability and constant water demand consideration. In this scenario river flow in the scenario of continuing the status quo as much as 6.7 percent and the rate of temperature, rainfall and agricultural levels constant, such as the status quo scenario .Pessimistic scenario represents a reduction of available water resources and increasing demand (16,19). By executing each scenario, system resources and demands, including allocating and deficit change the state of the system and the simulation results of mike basin inter to excel and assess the effects of implementation of each management options with calculating indecies in mike basin-excel decision support system helps decision makers and Stakeholders to Decision-making and policy-making. Multi-criteria decision-making methods to solve the problems with having a three-dimensional matrix include scenarios, options and indecies is essential. One of these methods of ranking of options is based on the distance of ideal point is "TOPSIS" method (18).
Results: TOPSIS method for evaluation of quantitative and qualitative indicators matrix in scale of spatial map by GIS software indicated that the Avagholi district, has the good condition in sustainability but also, the places located in the eastern of the Aras basin such as Ardebil, Meshkin Shahr, Ahar-Varzaghan, have low sustainability than the whole basin. To improve the state of the system, in the Response parameter, three structural alternatives is defined for demand management. The results of the MCDM method show that the option of "increase water efficiency" is better than decrease cultivated area and canal maintenance in all scenarios.
Conclusion: In this study, combination of quantitative and qualitative indicators has assessed the sustainability of thirtheen areas of Aras catchment within the "DPSIR" framework was done. Based on this framework five factor of driving force- Pressure- State- Impact- Response defined to Mike basin water resources simulation model. The out put of this model is intered to excel to calculate indicators. Based on TOPSIS multicriteria decision making that is useful to solve three dimensional matrixes of scenario- alternative- indecies, the east area of Aras basin has less sustainability than the others. Duo to alternative evaluation the increase of water efficiency help watershed sustainability based on indecies defined to the research area.